Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -400 JAX +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -17.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -12.3 (-3.3) | 141.3 (+5.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -10.1 (-1.1) | 142.7 (+4.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#94) | -1.6 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#23) | -0.30 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#35) | -0.37 (#195) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 45.7% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.0% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 26.7% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 43.9% |
| FT Rate | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.5% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 87.1% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.5% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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