Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -2500 MCN +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -26.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -28.7 (-20.7) | 151.1 (-15.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -21.9 (-13.9) | 147.9 (-11.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 19-1 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 64.5 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#16) | -3.9 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#79) | -0.97 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#81) | -1.42 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#55) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 52.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 42.9% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.8% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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