Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -4500 HAMP +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +9 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -18.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -18.5 (-9.5) | 127.9 (-16.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -20.9 (-11.9) | 131.3 (-20.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -14.7 (-5.7) | 130.0 (-19.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#128) | -4.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#36) | -0.28 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#28) | -0.33 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#28) | 0.750 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 28.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 21.1% |
| REB / G | 45.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 31.8% |
| TOV% | 27.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 34.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 80.5% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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