Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | VT -450 WIN +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +6 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | VT -13.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-42.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -12.4 (-6.4) | 148.8 (-38.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -10.4 (-4.4) | 147.4 (-37.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-9 | 16-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#110) | 1.3 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#96) | 0.50 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#93) | 0.69 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#106) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 52.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 21.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 29.0% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 53.8% |
| FT Rate | 38.5% | 49.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 40.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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