Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -1400 STBK +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +38 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -14.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -9.7 (+28.3) | 142.6 (+7.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -8.8 (+29.2) | 140.5 (+9.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -10.0 (+28.0) | 142.0 (+8.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -9.0 (+29.0) | 140.0 (+10.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2021 | GMU 74 – 52 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 18-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#133) | -1.3 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#174) | 2.65 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#174) | 3.28 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#106) | 0.863 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 24.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 25.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 38.5% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 60.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 61.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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