Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -3000 EWU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +7 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -17.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -10.5 (-3.5) | 149.1 (+11.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -13.8 (-6.8) | 149.7 (+11.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -11.1 (-4.1) | 147.6 (+13.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 18-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#144) | -5.0 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#158) | -0.18 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#154) | -0.35 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#84) | 0.562 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 38.9% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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