Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -550 USI +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -3.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -2.6 (+11.4) | 150.8 (-10.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -2.0 (+12.0) | 146.1 (-6.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -1.6 (+12.4) | 144.6 (-4.6) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#308) | 0.6 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#338) | -1.53 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#341) | -1.93 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#259) | 0.458 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 11.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.7% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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