Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +125 UTC -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +6 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -20.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -11.6 (-5.6) | 139.0 (-11.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -11.3 (-5.3) | 139.6 (-11.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#92) | -4.8 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#12) | -0.67 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#17) | -0.92 (#256) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 12.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 12.9% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.7% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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