Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -1800 NCCU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +16 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -17.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -16.8 (-0.8) | 148.9 (-12.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -18.4 (-2.4) | 149.6 (-13.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -15.2 (+0.8) | 147.8 (-11.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -13.9 (+2.1) | 143.6 (-7.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 6-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#119) | -3.5 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#147) | -2.25 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#155) | -3.22 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#244) | 0.271 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.7% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 46.2% | 24.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 68.0% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 42.3% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 27.6% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 45.5% |
Game Analysis
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