I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Memorial Gymnasium (TN) · November 14, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread VAN -7.5 Home covered
O/U 156.5 Under
Money VAN -340 / CAL +270
Model Predictions
Spread Total VAN win
Actual VAN +16 154 Won
Massey VAN -13.6 (+2.4)
Massey Totals 157.6 (-3.6)
Bradley-Terry 86%
Weighted B-T 91%
Baseline Plus ML VAN -10.6 (+5.4) 155.8 (-1.8) 81%
Baseline ML VAN -11.6 (+4.4) 152.4 (+1.6) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML VAN -10.3 (+5.7) 149.9 (+4.1) 80%
Efficiency Plus ML VAN -5.5 (+10.5) 153.1 (+0.9) 77%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VAN CAL
Overall 20-13 14-19
Conference 8-10 6-14
Home 14-3 11-6
Away 3-7 2-11
Neutral 3-3 1-2
Last 5 2-0 2-0
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 78.9 75.6
Avg Pts Against 74.3 76.8
Massey 6.3 (#60) 2.3 (#123)
Bradley-Terry 0.60 (#128) 0.77 (#110)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.78 (#132) 1.03 (#108)
RPI 0.427 (#242) 0.688 (#47)
Shooting & Four Factors VAN CAL
FG% 44.5% 44.3%
3PT% 18.6% 36.7%
REB / G 50.5 42.0
OREB / G 18.5 14.5
AST / TO 2.90 1.14
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.5% 51.6%
TOV% 6.9% 14.4%
ORB% 40.7% 38.7%
FT Rate 39.4% 41.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.6% 48.8%
Opp TOV% 15.8% 23.3%
DRB% 88.9% 69.6%
Opp FT Rate 15.7% 24.2%

Game Analysis

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