Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | COLO -1400 CSUF +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +30 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -15.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -13.2 (+16.8) | 142.8 (-6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -15.8 (+14.2) | 145.1 (-9.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -13.9 (+16.1) | 144.4 (-8.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-21 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 1-19 |
| Home | 11-7 | 4-11 |
| Away | 0-10 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#145) | -4.0 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#108) | -0.67 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#117) | -0.90 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#47) | 0.500 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 25.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 37.6% | 53.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 58.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 38.4% |
Game Analysis
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