Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -1200 CMU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +1 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -13.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -12.1 (-13.1) | 138.7 (+0.3) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -12.7 (-13.7) | 140.5 (-1.5) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -10.7 (-11.7) | 138.8 (+0.2) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -9.8 (-10.8) | 141.6 (-2.6) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 18-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#63) | 2.0 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#49) | 0.13 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#37) | 0.83 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#114) | 0.492 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 27.1% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 36.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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