Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -3000 CCU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -16.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -16.1 (-4.1) | 136.0 (+16.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -16.4 (-4.4) | 135.6 (+16.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -14.5 (-2.5) | 135.4 (+16.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 0-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#85) | -2.2 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#120) | -0.15 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#122) | -0.25 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#234) | 0.281 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.6% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.1% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 37.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 9.8% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 40.8% |
Game Analysis
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