Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -550 ORU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +9 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -14.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -13.9 (-4.9) | 150.2 (+10.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -16.7 (-7.7) | 150.8 (+10.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -15.3 (-6.3) | 146.8 (+14.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2025 | TLSA 88 – 87 ORU |
| Dec 3, 2023 | ORU 79 – 70 TLSA |
| Dec 3, 2022 | ORU 77 – 66 TLSA |
| Nov 30, 2021 | ORU 87 – 80 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-13 |
| Home | 8-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 82.0 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#191) | -5.5 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#154) | -0.28 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#154) | -0.39 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#258) | 0.750 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 3.43 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 40.5% |
| TOV% | 9.2% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.4% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 80.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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