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Baseline Tuned — 2023 NCAA Tournament

Each decided game is marked by whether this model's pre-game favorite won — matchup by matchup, from predictions recorded before tip-off. Undecided games show the model's current pick.

Plain bracket
44–23 on winners log loss 0.6077 upsets called 4 upsets missed 15 First Four 2–2 · 1st Round 23–9 · 2nd Round 11–5 · Sweet 16 4–4 · Elite 8 2–2 · Final Four 1–1 · National Championship 1–0

East

1 Purdue 58
16 FDU 63
FF: FDU 84, TXSO 61
✗ PUR 87%
8 Memphis 65
9 FAU 66
✗ MEM 49%
5 Duke 74
12 Oral Roberts 51
✓ DUKE 59%
4 Tennessee 58
13 Louisiana 55
✓ TENN 81%
6 Kentucky 61
11 Providence 53
✓ UK 63%
3 Kansas St 77
14 Montana St 65
✓ KSU 78%
7 Michigan St 72
10 USC 62
✓ MSU 50%
2 Marquette 78
15 Vermont 61
✓ MARQ 79%
16 FDU 70
9 FAU 78
✓ FAU 88%
5 Duke 52
4 Tennessee 65
✓ TENN 59%
6 Kentucky 69
3 Kansas St 75
✗ UK 50%
7 Michigan St 69
2 Marquette 60
✗ MARQ 67%
9 FAU 62
4 Tennessee 55
✗ TENN 58%
3 Kansas St 98
7 Michigan St 93
✓ KSU 54%
9 FAU 79
3 Kansas St 76
✓ FAU 56%

South

1 Alabama 96
16 Texas A&M-CC 75
FF: AMCC 75, SEMO 71
✓ ALA 87%
8 Maryland 67
9 West Virginia 65
✗ WVU 54%
5 San Diego St 63
12 Charleston 57
✓ SDSU 58%
4 Virginia 67
13 Furman 68
✗ UVA 70%
6 Creighton 72
11 NC State 63
✓ CREI 65%
3 Baylor 74
14 Santa Barbara 56
✓ BAY 78%
7 Missouri 76
10 Utah State 65
✗ USU 61%
2 Arizona 55
15 Princeton 59
✗ ARIZ 81%
1 Alabama 73
8 Maryland 51
✓ ALA 79%
5 San Diego St 75
13 Furman 52
✓ SDSU 73%
6 Creighton 85
3 Baylor 76
✓ CREI 53%
7 Missouri 63
15 Princeton 78
✗ MIZ 66%
1 Alabama 64
5 San Diego St 71
✗ ALA 72%
6 Creighton 86
15 Princeton 75
✓ CREI 77%
5 San Diego St 57
6 Creighton 56
✗ CREI 49%

Final Four

5 San Diego St 72
9 FAU 71
✗ FAU 51%

Championship

4 UConn 76
5 San Diego St 59
✓ CONN 67%

Final Four

4 UConn 72
5 Miami 59
✓ CONN 73%

West

1 Kansas 96
16 Howard 68
✓ KU 87%
8 Arkansas 73
9 Illinois 63
✓ ARK 53%
5 Saint Mary's 63
12 VCU 51
✓ SMC 63%
4 UConn 87
13 Iona 63
✓ CONN 77%
6 TCU 72
11 Arizona St 70
FF: ASU 98, NEV 73
✓ TCU 61%
3 Gonzaga 82
14 Grand Canyon 70
✓ GONZ 83%
7 Northwestern 75
10 Boise St 67
✗ BOIS 53%
2 UCLA 86
15 UNC Asheville 53
✓ UCLA 87%
1 Kansas 71
8 Arkansas 72
✗ KU 66%
5 Saint Mary's 55
4 UConn 70
✓ CONN 63%
6 TCU 81
3 Gonzaga 84
✓ GONZ 66%
7 Northwestern 63
2 UCLA 68
✓ UCLA 78%
8 Arkansas 65
4 UConn 88
✓ CONN 70%
3 Gonzaga 79
2 UCLA 76
✗ UCLA 56%
4 UConn 82
3 Gonzaga 54
✓ CONN 56%

Midwest

1 Houston 63
16 N Kentucky 52
✓ HOU 88%
8 Iowa 75
9 Auburn 83
✓ AUB 50%
5 Miami 63
12 Drake 56
✓ MIA 55%
4 Indiana 71
13 Kent State 60
✓ IU 56%
6 Iowa State 41
11 Pitt 59
FF: PITT 60, MSST 59
✗ ISU 66%
3 Xavier 72
14 Kennesaw St 67
✓ XAV 79%
7 Texas A&M 59
10 Penn State 76
✗ TA&M 58%
2 Texas 81
15 Colgate 61
✓ TEX 84%
1 Houston 81
9 Auburn 64
✓ HOU 78%
5 Miami 85
4 Indiana 69
✗ IU 57%
11 Pitt 73
3 Xavier 84
✓ XAV 69%
10 Penn State 66
2 Texas 71
✓ TEX 73%
1 Houston 75
5 Miami 89
✗ HOU 79%
3 Xavier 71
2 Texas 83
✓ TEX 62%
5 Miami 88
2 Texas 81
✗ TEX 69%