Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | FAU -1100 FDU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -19.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -14.1 (-6.1) | 147.9 (+0.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -14.9 (-6.9) | 148.4 (-0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -14.8 (-6.8) | 147.9 (+0.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -14.9 (-6.9) | 149.2 (-1.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 10-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 11-3 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#18) | -6.5 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#8) | -1.07 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#13) | -1.33 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#10) | 0.463 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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