Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -150 ILL +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -1.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -1.1 (+8.9) | 144.6 (-8.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -0.8 (+9.2) | 144.7 (-8.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -1.0 (+9.0) | 145.7 (-9.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -1.0 (+9.0) | 144.8 (-8.8) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2024 | ILL 90 – 77 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#15) | 12.4 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#36) | 1.89 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#39) | 2.41 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#36) | 0.557 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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