Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | ARK +160 ILL -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +13 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -4.8 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -3.7 (-9.3) | 148.2 (+18.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ILL -3.5 (-9.5) | 156.1 (+10.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ILL -1.7 (-11.3) | 142.9 (+24.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -3.1 (-9.9) | 146.1 (+20.9) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 16, 2023 | ARK 73 – 63 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#25) | 18.9 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#68) | 1.13 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#65) | 1.83 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#107) | 0.499 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 50.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 15.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 40.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 38.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 12.8% |
Game Analysis
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