Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | XAV -220 PITT +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +11 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -4.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -2.9 (+8.1) | 149.9 (+7.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | XAV -6.1 (+4.9) | 147.5 (+9.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | XAV -3.5 (+7.5) | 149.6 (+7.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -4.0 (+7.0) | 149.7 (+7.3) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#17) | 8.6 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#17) | 1.83 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#10) | 2.19 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#17) | 0.572 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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