Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -250 FUR +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -5.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -4.5 (-5.5) | 135.1 (-0.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -3.8 (-4.8) | 131.5 (+3.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -3.8 (-4.8) | 132.4 (+2.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -4.3 (-5.3) | 135.4 (-0.4) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#36) | 6.0 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#15) | 0.94 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#17) | 1.14 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#11) | 0.553 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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