Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -430 MD +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +22 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -8.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -8.8 (+13.2) | 143.4 (-19.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -9.6 (+12.4) | 141.0 (-17.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -9.1 (+12.9) | 140.9 (-16.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -8.9 (+13.1) | 140.0 (-16.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2025 | ALA 105 – 72 MD |
| Mar 23, 2021 | ALA 96 – 77 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 16-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 63.5 |
| Massey | 21.0 (#1) | 12.5 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#1) | 1.94 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.16 (#2) | 2.55 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#1) | 0.576 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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