Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -1600 MD +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +33 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -20.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -14.3 (+18.7) | 166.3 (+10.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -16.8 (+16.2) | 161.8 (+15.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -18.3 (+14.7) | 160.5 (+16.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -16.5 (+16.5) | 160.2 (+16.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 19, 2023 | ALA 73 – 51 MD |
| Mar 23, 2021 | ALA 96 – 77 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#6) | -1.3 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#21) | 1.44 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.98 (#16) | 2.28 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#10) | 0.537 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 42.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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