Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -250 MD +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +19 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -6.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -4.4 (+14.6) | 140.0 (+33.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -3.3 (+15.7) | 137.4 (+35.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -5.5 (+13.5) | 138.3 (+34.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -5.3 (+13.7) | 139.1 (+33.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2025 | ALA 105 – 72 MD |
| Mar 19, 2023 | ALA 73 – 51 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#7) | 11.7 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#7) | 1.94 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#8) | 2.65 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#4) | 0.554 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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