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Baseline Tuned — 2022 NCAA Tournament

Each decided game is marked by whether this model's pre-game favorite won — matchup by matchup, from predictions recorded before tip-off. Undecided games show the model's current pick.

Plain bracket
44–23 on winners log loss 0.6216 upsets called 2 upsets missed 19 First Four 4–0 · 1st Round 21–11 · 2nd Round 11–5 · Sweet 16 3–5 · Elite 8 3–1 · Final Four 1–1 · National Championship 1–0

East

1 Baylor 85
16 Norfolk St 49
✓ BAY 87%
8 North Carolina 95
9 Marquette 63
✓ UNC 56%
5 Saint Mary's 82
12 Indiana 53
FF: IU 66, WYO 58
✓ SMC 59%
4 UCLA 57
13 Akron 53
✓ UCLA 85%
6 Texas 81
11 Virginia Tech 73
✓ TEX 55%
3 Purdue 78
14 Yale 56
✓ PUR 86%
7 Murray St 92
10 San Francisco 87
✗ SF 52%
2 Kentucky 79
15 Saint Peter's 85
✗ UK 85%
1 Baylor 86
8 North Carolina 93
✗ BAY 74%
5 Saint Mary's 56
4 UCLA 72
✓ UCLA 58%
6 Texas 71
3 Purdue 81
✓ PUR 62%
7 Murray St 60
15 Saint Peter's 70
✗ MUR 77%
8 North Carolina 73
4 UCLA 66
✗ UCLA 63%
3 Purdue 64
15 Saint Peter's 67
✗ PUR 83%
8 North Carolina 69
15 Saint Peter's 49
✓ UNC 77%

West

1 Gonzaga 93
16 Georgia St 72
✓ GONZ 87%
8 Boise St 53
9 Memphis 64
✓ MEM 55%
5 UConn 63
12 New Mexico St 70
✗ CONN 74%
4 Arkansas 75
13 Vermont 71
✓ ARK 64%
6 Alabama 64
11 Notre Dame 78
FF: ND 89, RUTG 87
✗ ALA 55%
3 Texas Tech 97
14 Montana St 62
✓ TTU 86%
7 Michigan St 74
10 Davidson 73
✓ MSU 52%
2 Duke 78
15 Fullerton 61
✓ DUKE 86%
1 Gonzaga 82
9 Memphis 78
✓ GONZ 79%
12 New Mexico St 48
4 Arkansas 53
✓ ARK 65%
11 Notre Dame 53
3 Texas Tech 59
✓ TTU 77%
7 Michigan St 76
2 Duke 85
✓ DUKE 66%
1 Gonzaga 68
4 Arkansas 74
✗ GONZ 79%
3 Texas Tech 73
2 Duke 78
✗ TTU 55%
4 Arkansas 69
2 Duke 78
✓ DUKE 60%

Final Four

2 Duke 77
8 North Carolina 81
✗ DUKE 61%

Championship

1 Kansas 72
8 North Carolina 69
✓ KU 70%

Final Four

1 Kansas 81
2 Villanova 65
✓ KU 58%

South

1 Arizona 87
16 Wright St 70
FF: WRST 93, BRY 82
✓ ARIZ 87%
8 Seton Hall 42
9 TCU 69
✗ HALL 54%
5 Houston 82
12 UAB 68
✓ HOU 79%
4 Illinois 54
13 Chattanooga 53
✓ ILL 69%
6 Colorado St 63
11 Michigan 75
✗ CSU 53%
3 Tennessee 88
14 Longwood 56
✓ TENN 86%
7 Ohio State 54
10 Loyola Chicago 41
✗ LUC 60%
2 Villanova 80
15 Delaware 60
✓ VILL 86%
1 Arizona 85
9 TCU 80
✓ ARIZ 79%
5 Houston 68
4 Illinois 53
✓ HOU 67%
11 Michigan 76
3 Tennessee 68
✗ TENN 73%
7 Ohio State 61
2 Villanova 71
✓ VILL 71%
1 Arizona 60
5 Houston 72
✗ ARIZ 55%
11 Michigan 55
2 Villanova 63
✓ VILL 72%
5 Houston 44
2 Villanova 50
✗ HOU 58%

Midwest

1 Kansas 83
16 Texas Southern 56
FF: TXSO 76, AMCC 67
✓ KU 87%
8 San Diego St 69
9 Creighton 72
✗ SDSU 55%
5 Iowa 63
12 Richmond 67
✗ IOWA 80%
4 Providence 66
13 S Dakota St 57
✓ PROV 62%
6 LSU 54
11 Iowa State 59
✗ LSU 66%
3 Wisconsin 67
14 Colgate 60
✓ WIS 77%
7 USC 66
10 Miami 68
✗ USC 58%
2 Auburn 80
15 Jax State 61
✓ AUB 86%
1 Kansas 79
9 Creighton 72
✓ KU 78%
12 Richmond 51
4 Providence 79
✓ PROV 65%
11 Iowa State 54
3 Wisconsin 49
✗ WIS 56%
10 Miami 79
2 Auburn 61
✗ AUB 77%
1 Kansas 66
4 Providence 61
✓ KU 74%
11 Iowa State 56
10 Miami 70
✓ MIA 51%
1 Kansas 76
10 Miami 50
✓ KU 77%