Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | UCLA -145 UNC +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +7 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UCLA -5.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -3.0 (-10.0) | 146.2 (-7.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UCLA -4.2 (-11.2) | 141.6 (-2.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UCLA -4.2 (-11.2) | 147.8 (-8.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -4.0 (-11.0) | 148.1 (-9.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | UNC 76 – 74 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-3 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#10) | 12.7 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#9) | 2.55 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#8) | 3.01 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#9) | 0.603 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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