Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | AUB -320 MIA +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +18 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -9.0 (-27.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -6.9 (-24.9) | 149.4 (-9.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -6.6 (-24.6) | 145.5 (-5.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.6 (-23.6) | 148.1 (-8.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -7.0 (-25.0) | 147.9 (-7.9) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#9) | 8.8 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#8) | 2.09 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.02 (#7) | 2.52 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#4) | 0.574 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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