Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Over |
| Money | UCLA -160 SMC +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +16 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -3.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -2.1 (+13.9) | 128.7 (-0.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -3.1 (+12.9) | 125.5 (+2.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -2.1 (+13.9) | 129.4 (-1.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -2.0 (+14.0) | 127.6 (+0.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 61.3 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#11) | 14.0 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#13) | 2.76 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#10) | 3.24 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#10) | 0.635 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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