Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -500 ARK +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -10.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -7.5 (-13.5) | 155.9 (-13.9) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -6.3 (-12.3) | 156.1 (-14.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -5.7 (-11.7) | 157.1 (-15.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -7.8 (-13.8) | 154.9 (-12.9) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 17-1 |
| Away | 5-1 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 24.2 (#1) | 13.8 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#2) | 2.67 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.72 (#1) | 3.17 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#10) | 0.603 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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