Bitch, I'm me! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
(8) San Diego State Aztecs
69 – 72 OT
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Creighton Bluejays
Dickies Arena (Neutral) · March 17, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -2.0 Away covered
Money SDSU -115 / CREI -105
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual CREI +3 141 Lost
Massey SDSU -2.6 (-5.6) — —
Massey Totals — 118.4 (+22.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 50% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 51% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML SDSU -1.0 (-4.0) 124.9 (+16.1) 55% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SDSU -1.6 (-4.6) 125.6 (+15.4) 51% ✗
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -0.9 (-3.9) 126.0 (+15.0) 50% ✗
Baseline ML SDSU -1.2 (-4.2) 123.9 (+17.1) 51% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 26, 2024 SDSU 71 – 53 CREI
Mar 26, 2023 SDSU 57 – 56 CREI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU CREI
Overall 23-9 23-12
Conference 13-4 12-7
Home 14-1 11-4
Away 5-5 6-5
Neutral 4-3 6-3
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 65.4 69.2
Avg Pts Against 58.1 66.4
Massey 11.9 (#27) 9.3 (#59)
Bradley-Terry 2.49 (#27) 2.49 (#26)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.01 (#24) 2.98 (#25)
RPI 0.600 (#20) 0.566 (#56)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU CREI
FG% 43.3% 45.0%
3PT% 35.8% 30.7%
REB / G 35.1 38.3
OREB / G 9.8 9.6
AST / TO 0.94 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.8% 50.9%
TOV% 19.3% 20.5%
ORB% 29.6% 28.6%
FT Rate 21.7% 18.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.0% 44.8%
Opp TOV% 21.7% 15.5%
DRB% 73.0% 71.5%
Opp FT Rate 20.6% 14.7%

Game Analysis

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