I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
(5) San Diego State Aztecs
57 56
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(6) Creighton Bluejays
KFC Yum! Center (Neutral) · March 26, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread CREI -2.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money SDSU +125 / CREI -163
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +1 113 Won
Massey CREI -1.3 (+2.3)
Massey Totals 134.1 (-21.1)
Bradley-Terry 68%
Weighted B-T 60%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -0.1 (+0.9) 134.3 (-21.3) 66%
Model 4 ML SDSU -0.8 (+0.2) 131.2 (-18.2) 65%
Model 3 ML SDSU -0.2 (+0.8) 135.2 (-22.2) 59%
Baseline ML CREI -0.2 (+1.2) 131.0 (-18.0) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 26, 2024 SDSU 7153 CREI
Mar 17, 2022 CREI 7269 SDSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU CREI
Overall 32-7 24-13
Conference 15-3 14-6
Home 15-1 13-2
Away 8-2 5-6
Neutral 9-4 6-5
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.5 76.4
Avg Pts Against 63.6 68.4
Massey 14.0 (#15) 15.3 (#11)
Bradley-Terry 2.90 (#9) 2.14 (#29)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.26 (#13) 2.86 (#23)
RPI 0.646 (#2) 0.590 (#26)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU CREI
FG% 44.1% 47.0%
3PT% 34.1% 35.8%
REB / G 36.3 37.0
OREB / G 10.7 8.2
AST / TO 1.11 1.37
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.9% 54.6%
TOV% 17.5% 16.6%
ORB% 31.7% 25.2%
FT Rate 24.7% 22.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.4% 47.3%
Opp TOV% 19.4% 13.9%
DRB% 74.1% 76.8%
Opp FT Rate 22.0% 14.6%

Game Analysis

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