Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -115 DAV -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -1.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -1.2 (-0.2) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -0.4 (+0.6) | 137.0 (+10.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -0.0 (+1.0) | 138.7 (+8.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -1.0 (+0.0) | 140.8 (+6.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#34) | 10.0 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#27) | 2.23 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#25) | 2.51 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#33) | 0.592 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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