They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
(7) Michigan State Spartans
74 73
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(10) Davidson Wildcats
Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Neutral) · March 19, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread MSU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money MSU -115 / DAV -105
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSU win
Actual MSU +1 147 Won
Massey MSU -1.3 (-0.3)
Massey Totals 140.7 (+6.3)
Bradley-Terry 55%
Weighted B-T 60%
Baseline Plus ML MSU -1.5 (-0.5) 139.2 (+7.8) 61%
Model 4 ML MSU -1.2 (-0.2) 138.0 (+9.0) 59%
Model 3 ML MSU -1.3 (-0.3) 141.4 (+5.6) 56%
Baseline ML MSU -1.6 (-0.6) 139.9 (+7.1) 57%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSU DAV
Overall 23-13 27-7
Conference 11-9 15-3
Home 12-3 13-1
Away 5-6 9-3
Neutral 6-4 5-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 72.2 74.6
Avg Pts Against 69.0 66.1
Massey 11.3 (#34) 10.0 (#49)
Bradley-Terry 2.41 (#27) 2.23 (#33)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.90 (#25) 2.51 (#39)
RPI 0.587 (#33) 0.592 (#28)
Shooting & Four Factors MSU DAV
FG% 45.7% 47.7%
3PT% 37.8% 38.5%
REB / G 37.1 33.7
OREB / G 10.0 7.3
AST / TO 1.21 1.47
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.0% 55.6%
TOV% 19.2% 14.9%
ORB% 30.7% 23.6%
FT Rate 22.7% 24.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 49.4%
Opp TOV% 15.4% 16.9%
DRB% 73.0% 77.8%
Opp FT Rate 20.1% 20.7%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.