Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -650 MEM +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -11.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -7.9 (-3.9) | 155.6 (+4.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -7.3 (-3.3) | 155.8 (+4.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -7.3 (-3.3) | 156.4 (+3.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -7.7 (-3.7) | 153.8 (+6.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-1 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 24.3 (#1) | 12.7 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#2) | 1.94 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.66 (#1) | 2.73 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#11) | 0.587 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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