Betting Lines
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | MIA -145 ISU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +14 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -1.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -0.1 (+13.9) | 133.7 (-7.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -0.0 (+14.0) | 130.9 (-4.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -1.4 (+12.6) | 133.0 (-7.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -0.4 (+13.6) | 133.7 (-7.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-5 |
| Away | 10-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 62.5 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#54) | 10.6 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#35) | 2.48 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#33) | 2.91 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#43) | 0.547 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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