Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -10000 WRST +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +17 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -22.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -16.4 (+0.6) | 157.5 (-0.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -13.9 (+3.1) | 158.1 (-1.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -14.7 (+2.3) | 156.2 (+0.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -16.0 (+1.0) | 156.4 (+0.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 15-7 |
| Home | 17-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 21.3 (#2) | -0.7 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.94 (#1) | -0.28 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.53 (#2) | -0.28 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#2) | 0.509 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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