Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
(1) Arizona Wildcats
87 70
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(16) Wright State Raiders
Viejas Arena (Neutral) · March 18, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread ARIZ -21.5 Away covered
O/U 157.5 Under
Money ARIZ -10000 / WRST +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARIZ win
Actual ARIZ +17 157 Won
Massey ARIZ -22.0 (-5.0)
Massey Totals 157.5 (-0.5)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML ARIZ -18.5 (-1.5) 156.7 (+0.3) 90%
Model 4 ML ARIZ -15.8 (+1.2) 158.2 (-1.2) 89%
Model 3 ML ARIZ -19.8 (-2.8) 157.1 (-0.1) 90%
Baseline ML ARIZ -20.9 (-3.9) 155.2 (+1.8) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARIZ WRST
Neutral 7-1 3-4
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Massey 21.3 (#2) -0.7 (#180)
Bradley-Terry 3.94 (#1) -0.28 (#201)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.53 (#2) -0.28 (#197)
RPI 0.642 (#2) 0.509 (#155)
Shooting & Four Factors ARIZ WRST
FG% 49.6% 46.7%
3PT% 35.4% 33.3%
REB / G 41.4 34.6
OREB / G 11.4 10.5
AST / TO 1.51 1.12
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.9% 52.1%
TOV% 18.0% 17.9%
ORB% 34.5% 31.5%
FT Rate 25.9% 24.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.4% 51.1%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 18.4%
DRB% 71.7% 70.1%
Opp FT Rate 15.3% 18.7%

Game Analysis

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