Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | USC -145 MIA +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -2.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -1.9 (-3.9) | 142.6 (-8.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -2.4 (-4.4) | 139.6 (-5.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -0.9 (-2.9) | 141.6 (-7.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -2.0 (-4.0) | 141.3 (-7.3) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#37) | 8.6 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#19) | 1.91 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#25) | 2.38 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#46) | 0.568 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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