Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | BAY -230 UNC +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +7 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -7.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -5.5 (-12.5) | 149.0 (+30.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -4.9 (-11.9) | 146.7 (+32.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -4.8 (-11.8) | 147.6 (+31.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -5.7 (-12.7) | 148.5 (+30.5) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 19.9 (#4) | 12.1 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#4) | 2.36 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.27 (#4) | 2.79 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#11) | 0.596 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 79.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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