Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | OSU -110 LUC -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +13 | 95 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -1.7 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-41.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -2.1 (+15.1) | 139.1 (-44.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -1.6 (+14.6) | 134.0 (-39.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -2.5 (+15.5) | 135.8 (-40.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -2.4 (+15.4) | 137.5 (-42.5) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#29) | 13.4 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#40) | 1.82 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#38) | 2.25 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#48) | 0.580 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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