Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | ARK -300 NMSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +5 | 101 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -6.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-40.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -4.4 (+0.6) | 141.6 (-40.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -5.6 (-0.6) | 139.4 (-38.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -3.8 (+1.2) | 141.1 (-40.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -4.1 (+0.9) | 140.3 (-39.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-4 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#19) | 7.2 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#20) | 1.94 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#21) | 2.25 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#23) | 0.595 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.