Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -17.5 Away covered |
| Money | UK -600 SPU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +6 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -17.0 (-23.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -12.1 (-18.1) | 134.8 (+29.2) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -13.0 (-19.0) | 133.5 (+30.5) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -12.1 (-18.1) | 135.7 (+28.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -12.6 (-18.6) | 135.0 (+29.0) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 18-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 19.5 (#4) | 2.5 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#9) | 0.48 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#7) | 0.55 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#9) | 0.550 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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