Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -180 RICH +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +28 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -3.0 (+25.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -2.9 (+25.1) | 138.0 (-8.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -2.0 (+26.0) | 135.0 (-5.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -3.4 (+24.6) | 136.2 (-6.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -3.4 (+24.6) | 136.7 (-6.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#46) | 7.1 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#6) | 1.53 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#13) | 1.74 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#7) | 0.566 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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