Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -5.0 Away covered |
| Money | ARK -165 UVM +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -4.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -4.3 (-0.3) | 141.1 (+4.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ARK -7.3 (-3.3) | 140.4 (+5.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ARK -3.7 (+0.3) | 142.2 (+3.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.5 (+1.5) | 141.1 (+4.9) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 17-1 |
| Home | 17-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-4 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 61.1 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#20) | 9.2 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#21) | 1.31 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#20) | 1.87 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#28) | 0.588 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 81.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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