You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
(6) Alabama Crimson Tide
64 78
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(11) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Viejas Arena (Neutral) · March 18, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread ALA -4.5 Away covered
O/U 153.0 Under
Money ALA -200 / ND +170
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALA win
Actual ND +14 142 Lost
Massey ALA -3.7 (-17.7)
Massey Totals 153.9 (-11.9)
Bradley-Terry 56%
Weighted B-T 61%
Baseline Plus ML ALA -2.1 (-16.1) 153.9 (-11.9) 58%
Model 4 ML ALA -3.8 (-17.8) 151.4 (-9.4) 65%
Model 3 ML ALA -2.8 (-16.8) 155.5 (-13.5) 59%
Baseline ML ALA -2.8 (-16.8) 155.6 (-13.6) 59%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALA ND
Overall 19-14 24-11
Conference 9-9 15-5
Home 13-3 14-1
Away 3-7 7-5
Neutral 3-4 2-5
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 79.5 72.1
Avg Pts Against 76.5 67.2
Massey 13.0 (#23) 9.3 (#56)
Bradley-Terry 2.13 (#36) 1.89 (#49)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.63 (#37) 2.21 (#53)
RPI 0.614 (#13) 0.582 (#42)
Shooting & Four Factors ALA ND
FG% 44.1% 46.1%
3PT% 30.8% 37.6%
REB / G 40.0 33.7
OREB / G 13.5 7.1
AST / TO 1.00 1.41
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.4% 54.1%
TOV% 19.7% 15.2%
ORB% 35.6% 22.1%
FT Rate 24.5% 20.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.4% 49.4%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 15.0%
DRB% 69.3% 75.6%
Opp FT Rate 25.0% 15.5%

Game Analysis

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