Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Under |
| Money | ALA -200 ND +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +14 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -3.7 (-17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -1.7 (-15.7) | 154.4 (-12.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -3.2 (-17.2) | 152.4 (-10.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -1.2 (-15.2) | 153.7 (-11.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -1.6 (-15.6) | 155.5 (-13.5) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#23) | 9.3 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#36) | 1.89 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#37) | 2.21 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#13) | 0.582 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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