I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
(5) Saint Mary's Gaels
82 53
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(12) Indiana Hoosiers
Moda Center (Neutral) · March 17, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread SMC -2.5 Home covered
O/U 124.5 Over
Money SMC -145 / IU +125
Model Predictions
Spread Total SMC win
Actual SMC +29 135 Won
Massey SMC -1.7 (+27.3)
Massey Totals 122.8 (+12.2)
Bradley-Terry 68%
Weighted B-T 68%
Baseline Plus ML SMC -3.8 (+25.2) 127.8 (+7.2) 66%
Model 4 ML SMC -4.1 (+24.9) 126.1 (+8.9) 61%
Model 3 ML SMC -3.3 (+25.7) 126.6 (+8.4) 65%
Baseline ML SMC -3.3 (+25.7) 127.2 (+7.8) 60%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SMC IU
Overall 26-8 21-14
Conference 12-3 9-11
Home 16-0 14-4
Away 6-4 3-8
Neutral 4-4 4-2
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.5 70.8
Avg Pts Against 61.3 66.2
Massey 13.2 (#21) 11.5 (#31)
Bradley-Terry 2.71 (#19) 1.94 (#45)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.15 (#20) 2.41 (#43)
RPI 0.634 (#5) 0.552 (#72)
Shooting & Four Factors SMC IU
FG% 46.3% 45.7%
3PT% 35.1% 33.5%
REB / G 33.4 36.4
OREB / G 8.4 9.2
AST / TO 1.21 1.25
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.6% 51.0%
TOV% 17.0% 17.2%
ORB% 27.2% 27.4%
FT Rate 17.8% 23.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.3% 45.8%
Opp TOV% 19.5% 17.8%
DRB% 78.1% 74.9%
Opp FT Rate 17.4% 23.4%

Game Analysis

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