Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -145 IU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +29 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -1.7 (+27.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -3.8 (+25.2) | 127.8 (+7.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SMC -4.1 (+24.9) | 126.1 (+8.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | SMC -3.3 (+25.7) | 126.6 (+8.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -3.3 (+25.7) | 127.2 (+7.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#21) | 11.5 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#19) | 1.94 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#20) | 2.41 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#5) | 0.552 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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