Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | BAY -10000 NORF +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +36 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -19.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -14.8 (+21.2) | 138.8 (-4.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -15.4 (+20.6) | 137.5 (-3.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -14.4 (+21.6) | 140.0 (-6.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -15.5 (+20.5) | 138.8 (-4.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | BAY 97 – 67 NORF |
| Dec 11, 2024 | BAY 94 – 69 NORF |
| Nov 12, 2022 | BAY 87 – 70 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-0 |
| Away | 8-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 66.6 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#5) | -0.5 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#5) | 0.32 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.23 (#4) | 0.25 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#14) | 0.526 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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