Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -50000 NORF +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +25 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -19.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -20.4 (+4.6) | 147.6 (+15.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -17.7 (+7.3) | 148.6 (+14.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -18.4 (+6.6) | 149.6 (+13.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -18.6 (+6.4) | 148.3 (+14.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | BAY 97 – 67 NORF |
| Nov 12, 2022 | BAY 87 – 70 NORF |
| Mar 17, 2022 | BAY 85 – 49 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#15) | 1.7 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#49) | 0.49 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#52) | 0.72 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#32) | 0.533 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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