Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -440 SPU +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +20 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -8.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -7.5 (+12.5) | 137.9 (-19.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -8.7 (+11.3) | 137.7 (-19.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -7.0 (+13.0) | 137.7 (-19.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.7 (+13.3) | 135.8 (-17.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#21) | 4.6 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#17) | 1.12 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#19) | 1.27 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#16) | 0.584 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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