I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
(1) Kansas Jayhawks
81 65
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(2) Villanova Wildcats
Caesars Superdome (Neutral) · April 2, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread KU -4.0 Home covered
O/U 133.0 Over
Money KU -190 / VILL +170
Model Predictions
Spread Total KU win
Actual KU +16 146 Won
Massey KU -1.6 (+14.4)
Massey Totals 139.6 (+6.4)
Bradley-Terry 52%
Weighted B-T 57%
Baseline Plus ML KU -3.6 (+12.4) 138.1 (+7.9) 71%
Model 4 ML KU -2.8 (+13.2) 137.2 (+8.8) 72%
Model 3 ML KU -3.8 (+12.2) 137.6 (+8.4) 63%
Baseline ML KU -4.5 (+11.5) 138.0 (+8.0) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings KU VILL
Overall 34-6 30-8
Conference 14-4 16-4
Home 19-1 12-1
Away 6-4 8-5
Neutral 9-1 10-2
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak W11 L1
Avg Pts For 78.2 71.7
Avg Pts Against 67.2 62.7
Massey 19.4 (#5) 17.8 (#10)
Bradley-Terry 3.70 (#2) 3.63 (#3)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.47 (#1) 4.19 (#5)
RPI 0.660 (#1) 0.649 (#2)
Shooting & Four Factors KU VILL
FG% 47.8% 43.4%
3PT% 35.6% 35.7%
REB / G 38.0 35.0
OREB / G 11.1 10.3
AST / TO 1.25 1.20
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.7% 51.6%
TOV% 17.5% 15.6%
ORB% 33.1% 31.1%
FT Rate 23.6% 25.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.1% 46.8%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 18.5%
DRB% 72.3% 71.3%
Opp FT Rate 19.9% 18.3%

Game Analysis

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