Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | KU -190 VILL +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | KU -1.6 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -2.0 (+14.0) | 137.8 (+8.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -0.7 (+15.3) | 136.6 (+9.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -1.5 (+14.5) | 137.0 (+9.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -2.1 (+13.9) | 136.6 (+9.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 16-4 |
| Home | 19-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 9-1 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W11 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#5) | 17.8 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#2) | 3.63 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.47 (#1) | 4.19 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.660 (#1) | 0.649 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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