Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -115 VT -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -2.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.6 (+33.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -1.3 (+6.7) | 130.9 (+23.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -1.0 (+7.0) | 126.3 (+27.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -0.7 (+7.3) | 128.0 (+26.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -1.8 (+6.2) | 131.7 (+22.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#17) | 12.8 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#24) | 1.80 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#22) | 2.33 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#72) | 0.563 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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