Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
(3) Texas Tech Red Raiders
97 62
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(14) Montana State Bobcats
Viejas Arena (Neutral) · March 18, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread TTU -15.0 Home covered
O/U 132.5 Over
Money TTU -1700 / MTST +900
Model Predictions
Spread Total TTU win
Actual TTU +35 159 Won
Massey TTU -15.7 (+19.3)
Massey Totals 131.9 (+27.1)
Bradley-Terry 89%
Weighted B-T 94%
Baseline Plus ML TTU -15.5 (+19.5) 139.1 (+19.9) 88%
Model 4 ML TTU -18.1 (+16.9) 135.9 (+23.1) 89%
Model 3 ML TTU -15.1 (+19.9) 137.2 (+21.8) 89%
Baseline ML TTU -14.9 (+20.1) 138.7 (+20.3) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TTU MTST
Overall 27-10 27-8
Conference 12-6 16-4
Home 18-0 13-1
Away 3-8 9-6
Neutral 6-2 5-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.1 75.0
Avg Pts Against 60.6 69.7
Massey 17.6 (#10) 1.9 (#137)
Bradley-Terry 3.08 (#9) 0.95 (#108)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.88 (#8) 1.13 (#103)
RPI 0.585 (#35) 0.560 (#65)
Shooting & Four Factors TTU MTST
FG% 47.0% 47.2%
3PT% 31.4% 36.8%
REB / G 36.4 34.6
OREB / G 10.6 8.4
AST / TO 0.98 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.4% 53.8%
TOV% 20.4% 18.5%
ORB% 33.2% 26.7%
FT Rate 25.2% 30.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.5% 48.3%
Opp TOV% 23.5% 18.2%
DRB% 73.9% 76.7%
Opp FT Rate 21.9% 27.2%

Game Analysis

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