Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -1700 MTST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +35 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -15.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -12.3 (+22.7) | 137.0 (+22.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -13.9 (+21.1) | 134.0 (+25.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -11.7 (+23.3) | 137.1 (+21.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -12.2 (+22.8) | 137.9 (+21.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-4 |
| Home | 18-0 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#10) | 1.9 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#9) | 0.95 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#8) | 1.13 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#35) | 0.560 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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