Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -300 NMSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -8.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -7.9 (-14.9) | 133.2 (-0.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | CONN -8.5 (-15.5) | 134.6 (-1.6) | 79% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | CONN -7.7 (-14.7) | 135.3 (-2.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -6.8 (-13.8) | 134.4 (-1.4) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#17) | 6.7 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#17) | 1.83 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#16) | 2.11 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#33) | 0.589 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.